On the night of November 19, 1421 – Saint Elizabeth’s day – large parts of Holland flooded. The area of Dordrecht in particular was hit hard by this disaster: 23 villages were destroyed and 2,000 people died. The relatives later had an altarpiece made. The disaster was depicted on the outer panels, with the dyke breach on the right and the safe Dordrecht on the left.

Source: WMO Gallery

“February” 1412

“February” from Les Très Riches Heures du duc de Berry is thought to be inspired by the Little Ice Age and one of the earliest impressions of Winter in paintings which did not become common until the 1400s when winters started to become more severe.

An enclosure surrounds a farm comprising a sheep pen, four beehives and a dovecote. Inside the house, a woman and a young couple warm themselves in front of the fire. Outside, a man chops down a tree with an axe while another gets ready to go inside while blowing on his hands to warm them. Further away, a third drives a donkey, loaded with wood, towards the neighbouring village.

1412 “February”

Source: WMO Gallery

What your gullibility to online hoaxes really says about you

“People believe what they want to believe. It’s that simple”, says Dr Keith Harris, of UQ’s School of Psychology.

“There has been research done for decades on the fact that, when you’re for or against something, you lower standard of proof if the evidence supports the side you’re on, while you increase those standards if the evidence supports the opposing view”.

“It’s called social identity theory, which posits that all of us identify as being members of various groups, which become our ‘in’ groups, while others become our ‘out’ groups.

“We defend our in groups and attack our out groups. And so when a message is delivered from the ‘out’ group attacking our ‘in’ group, we just won’t accept it, and vice versa”.

And this social identity theory extends to all areas of the internet including online hoaxes.

Source: CEO Magazine

“Climate change impact accelerating: report”

“Climate change is accelerating, with carbon dioxide levels increasing, sea levels rising and ice sheets melting faster than ever, ‘experts’ have warned. The warning from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) forms part of a ‘united in science’ review for a UN climate action summit at which countries are being urged to increase their ambition to tackle emissions.

The WMO has published a report showing climate change and its impacts over the past five years between 2015 and 2019, which shows it was the hottest five-year period on record.

Source: The Canberra Times

Terms like “united in science” and “countries being urged” betray the political nature of the ‘report’.

There are a number of false claims in this ‘report’ but the main one is the time period:

  • Five years is an insignificant period relative to decadal oscilattions and Climate variability effects, such as ENSO, the IOD and the PDO.
  • There is no mention of the major cause of Climate change, which is Milankovitch cycles.
  • In any cycle, regular or irregular, there are periods of short-term acceleration and also periods of short-term deceleration. Think about a sine wave.
  • The ‘on record’ claim is ludicrous in context. The temperature record was only made possible in 1714 when Fahrenheit invented the first accurate thermometer. Thermometers only became widespread in the US in the 1920s – and later in less developed countries. 100 years is the blink of an eye in Climate Change timeframes.
  • ‘Anthropogenic’ has been dropped from ‘Anthropogenic Global Warming’ which has morphed into ‘Climate Change’, so now when natural causes *still* predominate, humans get the blame.

In fact:

  • The climate has always changed
  • Humans do contribute to Climate change
  • Climate change does accelerate in parts of the cycle.

The report is sophisticated propaganda, which uses exaggeration and omission to achieve a political objective.

The WMO’s objectives are obviously political and therefore their releases should be regarded as highly ‘suss’.

The chart shows the time in context.

The five years of ‘acceleration’ is less than a pixel on an 800-pixel wide chart – and the horizontal axis is a log scale.

The quote is originally from Mark Twain, quoting a student:

“Climate lasts all the time and weather only a few days”.

In 1901, geographer Andrew John Herbertson wrote in his book ‘Outlines of Physiography’:

“By climate we mean the average weather as ascertained by many years’ observations. Climate also takes into account the extreme weather experienced during that period. Climate is what on an average we may expect, weather is what we actually get”.

In 1973, Robert Heinlein wrote in his novel ‘Time Enough for Love’:

“Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get”

Source: Quote Investigator


Understanding Climate Variability and (Climate) Change

Weather describes current atmospheric conditions, such as rainfall, temperature, and wind speed, at a particular place and time. It changes from day to day.

Climate is the average (or ‘normal’) pattern of weather for a particular place over several decades. Changes in climate are hard to detect without very long-term records.

One way to understand the difference between weather, climate variability and climate change is to think about how they operate on different time scales.

In the figure, weather events such as rain storms might last one or two hours and tropical cyclones may last days. Climate variability can be defined by climate patterns such as the El-Niño Southern Oscillation. Climate change refers to things which happen over centuries, like global warming.

Source: Pacificclimatefutures.net

Yesterday, SBS posted this story:

The Australians walking out of work over climate change inaction

“Mr Sheikh, chief executive of sustainable company Future Super, is part of a growing group of business leaders who are shutting their doors and encouraging staff to join the School Strike for Climate. ‘Our employees came to us and said they wanted to attend the student climate marches’, he told SBS News

Source: SBS News

Sheikh is better known as the former head of Getup!
He also failed to get up as a Greens candidate.

There isn’t any mention of Sheikh’s role in Getup! nor his failure to get elected for the Greens.

SBS attempts to create the impression that the ‘Not Business as usual’ campaign is widespread, with:

  • “…growing group of business leaders”

Sheikh claims that:

  • “Our employees came to us and said they wanted to attend the student climate marches”

Employees led by the fanatic who hired them. How many mining advocates, climate sceptics and geologists does he employ?


Sheikh’s ultra-Green startup is funded by the usual Green activists:

GetUp’s Simon Sheikh back with super fund start-up

Bendigo Bank, Simon Holmes à Court and former Greens lower house member Caroline Le Couteur kicked in $600,000. The fund started last September with about $3.6 million in savings and 100 members. Sheikh says most of the angel investment came through his political connections as a Greens activist. Running a $100 million super fund is an unexpected career choice for Sheikh who grew up in public housing and became involved with GetUp to reduce social inequality.

He says running a fossil fuel-free start-up allows him to push the climate change agenda much better than being in the government.

“With the conservative government, the market’s going to have a disproportionate impact now and the $2 trillion superannuation sector is a good place to be in,” he says.

Source: GetUp’s Simon Sheikh back with super fund start-up

On Tuesday, the editor of The Conversation, wrote:

“Climate change deniers are dangerous – they don’t deserve a place on our site”

“[The Conversation] in Australia is implementing a zero-tolerance approach to moderating climate change deniers, and sceptics. Not only will we be removing their comments, we’ll be locking their accounts“.

Source: The Conversation


On Monday, ‘The Conversation’ published the following article on ABC News:

If climate change destroyed your town would you rebuild or relocate?

Climate change increasingly threatens communities all over the world. News of fires, floods and coastal erosion devastating lives and livelihoods seems almost constant”.

So The Conversation’s ‘evidence’ is News reports?

Good grief! Is that what they mean by ‘evidence based’?

Will that make you flee your town?


Q. What causes bushfires in Australia?

The real causes of Bushfires in Australia were investigated by a Senate Select committee in 2010 – which based its report on information from the CSIRO – not news reports. The CSIRO is the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, not a biased media organisation.

In another study in 2004, the ABS investigated the causes of bushfires in Victoria. In summary:

Further details of these studies are provided here.


The CSIRO reported on the predominant causes of bushfire intensity, while the Bureau of Meteorology reported on the predominant cause of dry fuel – which is drought:

  • Dry fuel: the BoM reports that the predominant causes of drought are the El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation (measured by SOI) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The chart shows a prolonged period of drought which has led to an exceptionally dry fuel load.
  • Fuel Quantity, especially adjacent to habitation, is governed by local council restrictions and restrictive state land clearing laws. the Queensland government recently fined a farmer for using native Mulga to feed starving cattle.
  • Severe storms are shown in another chart produced by the Bureau of meteorology – see below. The frequency and severity of cyclones is decreasing.

The ‘Evidence based’ article in The Conversation continues…

What happens when climate change causes extreme events to become chronic, potentially rendering some communities unviable? ‘Climigration’ is the planned relocation of entire communities to new locations further from harm. And it has already begun.

It takes a lot to convince a community to move. But extreme events disrupt communities socially, economically and physically [and] responses usually occur in one of two ways.

We can try to repair damage and continue as before, which is known as ‘resilience’.

Or we try to repair and fortify against future damage in a process of ‘adaptation’.

‘Climigration’ is an extreme form of climate change adaptation.

Source: The Conversation via ABC News


Comment:

  • Resilience is the quality exhibited by people dealing with the effects of human-lit fires and RFS volunteers who put up their hands to help. Resilience is NOT the utterly useless response of inner-city Greens and other Climate scare specialists
  • Adaptation is the quality exhibited when we accept Hansen’s statement that: ‘Climate is always changing’ – and just get on with building dams, power stations and the things we need for our well-being. Adaptation is NOT useless protests without solutions.

JoNova summed up best The Conversation’s ban on ‘deniers’:

“The Conversation” gives up conversing, admits defeat on climate, bans all skeptical scientists from commenting!

“The editor Misha Ketchell has officially blocked unbelievers, and thus effectively admitted that they can’t reply to skeptics, and that skeptics are posing too many questions they can’t answer. They’ve been deleting skeptical comments for years, so it’s good that they finally have the honesty to admit it.

If only they had evidence they wouldn’t need to ban people.

Source: JoNova

The Conversation doesn’t even have evidence – they quote News reports instead of data and science:

News of fires, floods and coastal erosion devastating lives and livelihoods seems almost constant

This evidence-based commentary which quotes the Bureau of Meteorology, the ABS and the CSIRO would be banned and deleted by ‘The Conversation’.

Monster pictures:

NB: Both are fictitious – like The Conversation’s “evidence based” Climigration article.

According to the ABC:

Frost and drought: Climate change [is] hammering Australia’s biggest tea plantation

“With growing fears about the effect changing global temperatures are having on farm production, tea is one industry at the forefront of climate change in Australia.

‘I have seen a change … last year we were using the word alarming but it seems to have swung back in this cycle this year’, Mr Poyner said. ‘What we’re seeing is longer, dry ends-of-years, fairly decent monsoons, but then, June/July, right through to Christmas, we’re not seeing that early monsoonal activity’. ‘That’s a trend I’ve noticed in the last 10 years, and I’m hoping that doesn’t continue and that this year snaps that cycle and we see good spring rains’, Mr Poyner said.

Source: ABC Rural


Apparently Poyner didn’t notice Cyclone Yasi…


The following shows the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) for the last 10 years:

Description:

A strongly and consistently positive SOI pattern is related to a high probability of above the long-term average (median) rainfall for many areas of Australia, especially areas of eastern Australia – La Niña.

Conversely, a ‘deep’ and consistently negative SOI pattern is related to a high probability of below median rainfall for many areas of Australia at certain times of the year – El Niño.

Source: Weatherzone

In November 2018, the ABC wrote:

“Australia’s emissions go up again,
but Environment Minister says progress being made”

Citing these key points:

  • “Emissions continue rise since 2013, now highest since 2011”
  • “Increased LNG, coal production named as primary cause”
  • “Solar and wind being undone by LNG emissions”
  • “Government insists we’re on track to meet Paris emissions targets despite rise”

Source: ABC News


Putting Australian emissions into context:

The BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019

  • Australia’s CO2 emissions comprise only 1.2% of global CO2 emissions
  • Australia’s CO2 emissions are less than 1/20th of China’s emissions
  • The growth of China’s emissions in only 2 years equals Australia’s total

Source: BP.com

The ABC’s chart is overlaid on the global chart to illustrate how the ABC cherry-picks Australian emissions and fails to show the data in the context of Global emissions.

Overlaid on the chart of Global emissions is a chart showing Mining GDP, which clearly illustrates where the growth in emissions is occurring. The implication is that they want us to curtail mining output.

The ABC claims that:

[Australian] Emissions for the year ending in June 2018 have increased on the previous year by 0.6 per cent, pushing Australia’s emissions to the highest they have been since 2011.

Australia’s increase in CO2 emissions of 0.6% of 1.2% of World CO2 emissions amounts to 0.007% of World emissions.

In the same timeframe, China’s 28% of global emissions increased by 2.2%, or 0.6% of world emissions or 83 times Australia’s increase.

The whole article fundamentally misrepresents reality:

  • Australian data shown out of context yet Global agreement cited
  • China’s increase (83x Australia’s) is not shown
  • The uses pictures of steam to represent “polluation” when neither steam nor CO2 is pollution
  • The ABC ignores the obvious correlation between GDP growth and ‘carbon’ emissions

The article is headed by the usual picture showing clouds of steam emitted by cooling towers: